Is history unidirectional?

January 12 2009The Marriage DebateDavid Benkof2 comments Comments

Many gays and lesbians have assumed that gay marriage is inevitable by projecting past trends in public opinion into the future. This is a mistake, because history does not just move in one direction. The idea that previous generations always have fewer rights and freedoms than subsequent generations is demonstrably historically false.

For example, in 1977, it seemed like the Equal Rights Amendment was inevitable, but determined opposition by conservative groups, including vigorous participation by traditionalist women, doomed that proposal. Similarly, in the 1920s a lot of Americans – and Europeans – expected greater rights for women, Jews, and other minorities to be an inevitable consequence of the forward march of history. But the 1930s brought a retrenchment and a setback for civil rights of all kinds. In gay and lesbian history, setbacks have been related to anything from an orange juice spokeswoman (Anita Bryant) to a devastating plague (AIDS).

It is impossible to predict public opinion a decade from now based on public opinion today. It’s not like predicting how many amoebas will result after two hours if an amoeba splits in half every 10 seconds. Public opinion can be affected by unforeseeable events, by persuasive leadership, and by the Zeitgeist of the times.

Finally, there’s the concept of “low-hanging fruit.” To predict that 2.5 percent of the public will switch to support of gay marriage every  year is to ignore the fact that the more persuadable switch first, and each year of progress makes it harder to get people to switch the next year.