Younger voters favor gay marriage. So?
CommentsIn survey after survey, younger voters tend to favor gay marriage at higher rates than older voters. After a survey last May which showed such a trend, Field Poll director Mark DiCamillo said the results displayed a “generational replacement,” with older voters being replaced by younger voters who supported same-sex marriage.
But what if this isn’t a generational issue, but rather an age issue? Young voters tend not to be married, a fact that could be significant in terms of attitudes toward this issue. As today’s young voters get older and marry and have children, could they come to appreciate that mothers and fathers make different kinds of contributions to the raising of a child? It certainly is possible.
If that hunch is correct, then young voters’ support for same-sex marriage is related to their age, not their generation. A similar result is found among women - unmarried women are more likely to vote Democrat, whereas married women are more likely to vote Republican. Yet these are the same women! They’re just at different stages of their lives, and have different attitudes.
I’m not asserting that the younger-voters statistic is age-oriented rather than generational; I’m just raising the possibility that it might be.
DB: “I’m not asserting that the younger-voters statistic is age-oriented rather than generational; I’m just raising the possibility that it might be.”
It’s a possibility to be considered, but in fact we already know it doesn’t pan out, see e.g., http://www.field.com/fieldpollonline/subscribers/Rls2223.pdf .
Even if that Field Study is flawless, it only refers to California, which is far from a “typical” state.
“Even if that Field Study is flawless, it only refers to California, which is far from a “typical” state.”
Sure, but in fact it’s the trend across the board: the majority of the net change is generational.
The sample of black respondents in the Field study is very low (less than 60) and the margin of error correspondingly high.
The exit poll had much larger samples and lower margin of error. That ought to be taken into account when deciding whether or not to peg the exit poll as an outlier.